Variations of the frequency of extreme daily precipitation events in winter and summer in the Russian Federation were studied for the 1961-2013 period using meteorological stations data. Future changes were estimated using data of the global climate models from CMIP5 model ensemble. In winter, there is a slight increase in the extreme precipitation frequency throughout Russia except for the Far East. By the end of the twenty-first century, models predict an overall strengthening of this trend. In summer, current changes are less significant and characterized by strong spatial heterogeneity. According to the CMIP5 models, the frequency of extreme precipitation will decrease in western and southern parts of Russia by the end of the 21st century and will increase in the northern and eastern regions.
The change in annual precipitation, in the humidification conditions and in the frequency of occurrence of the cyclones centers in the north of the East-European Plain in the 20th - early 21st centuries were the subject of this study. The growth of annual precipitation in the region with a rate of 0.7 mm per year in average was accompanied by an increase of cyclonic activity. The rise in the frequency of cyclones occurrence over the north of the plain was associated not only with the global warming. An assessment of the long-period variability of cyclonic activity has shown its spatio-temporal density growth throughout the entire study period. Positive long-term trends of humidification in the west and east of the study area were identified, while the annual humidification of its central part tended to decrease. The largest negative trend of humidification for the whole study period was observed in the region of the Solovki Islands (the north of European Russia), which is confirmed by the coherent response of the spruce tree-ring growth from Bolshoy Solovetsky island.
Variations of the frequency and intensity of extreme daily precipitation in summer in the southeast of the Far East Federal District of the Russian Federation, - in region with high risks of extreme seasonal floods, were studied for the period 1970- 2015 using data of 54 meteorological stations. Future changes for the period 2041-2060 were estimated using data of the global climate models HadGEM and MPI-ESM. It is shown that the observed and projected changes in frequency extreme daily precipitation events in summer are diverse and statistically insignificant when averaged for the whole study area. However, a growth of extreme daily precipitation intensity in the north of the study area and in the south of Sakhalin island is found in obserations for the recent period 2000-2015 being relative to 1970-1999. Such a tendency is projected by the middle of the 21st century according to the HadGEM and MPI-ESM models.
The impact of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) on the major modes of large-scale atmospheric circulation in the North Atlantic/European Sector in summer is analyzed. It is shown that summer SST anomalies associated with AMO are linked not only to the NAO, but also to East Atlantic/ Western Russia (EAWR) teleconnection pattern. Negative (positive) values of NAO and EAWR indices prevailed in the positive (negative) phase of AMO. The dominance of the opposite phases of NAO, SCAND and EAWR indices in summer during the warm and cooler North Atlantic results in differences in the regional climate. The coupled response of the NAO, EAWR and SCAND is more distinct in the years of extreme AMO index values, what indicates a linearity of the linkage.
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