Monte-carlo method for substation seismic risk assessment

Yiran Yan; Zeyu Liu; Jie Feng; Zhen Yu; Xiyuan Xu

doi:10.1117/12.2672559

28 March 2023 Monte-carlo method for substation seismic risk assessment

Yiran Yan, Zeyu Liu, Jie Feng, Zhen Yu, Xiyuan Xu

Proceedings Volume 12597, Second International Conference on Statistics, Applied Mathematics, and Computing Science (CSAMCS 2022); 1259732 (2023) https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2672559
Event: Second International Conference on Statistics, Applied Mathematics, and Computing Science (CSAMCS 2022), 2022, Nanjing, China

Abstract

In order to analyze the substation seismic risk quantitatively, Monte-Carlo method is carried out in a mathematical model building for substation seismic risk assessment. Monte-Carlo method is satisfied and applicable to simulate the earthquake parameters such as seismic center and seismic magnitude which is key factors for calculate the substation seismic risk on the basic of fragility curve. A substation is taken as an example, meanwhile 50000 earthquakes are generated under different seismic center and magnitude by Monte-Carlo method. The result indicates that the seismic risk increases with the increase of magnitude and the decrease of epicentral distance. When the seismic magnitude is less than six and the epicenter distance is more than 50 km, the substation seismic risk is relatively low. However, when the seismic magnitude raises greater than 7.5, the seismic risk rises rapidly. Finally, the seismic risk is greater than 30% regardless of the epicenter distance under the condition of seismic magnitude greater than eight. This paper provides a way for substation seismic risk assessment based on Monte-Carlo method, and gives references to the risk analysis, disaster prevention and emergency management on electric power system.

Citation Download Citation

Yiran Yan, Zeyu Liu, Jie Feng, Zhen Yu, and Xiyuan Xu "Monte-carlo method for substation seismic risk assessment", Proc. SPIE 12597, Second International Conference on Statistics, Applied Mathematics, and Computing Science (CSAMCS 2022), 1259732 (28 March 2023); https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2672559

ACCESS THE FULL ARTICLE

INSTITUTIONAL
Select your institution to access the SPIE Digital Library.

SELECT YOUR INSTITUTION

PERSONAL
Sign in with your SPIE account to access your personal subscriptions or to use specific features such as save to my library, sign up for alerts, save searches, etc.

PERSONAL SIGN IN

No SPIE Account? Create one

PURCHASE THIS CONTENT

SUBSCRIBE TO DIGITAL LIBRARY

50 downloads per 1-year subscription

Members: $195

Non-members: $335 ADD TO CART

25 downloads per 1 - year subscription

Members: $145

Non-members: $250 ADD TO CART

PURCHASE SINGLE ARTICLE

Includes PDF, HTML & Video, when available